tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post168875318928138384..comments2008-05-01T11:44:33.294-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-8926729564381765702008-05-01T11:44:00.000-04:002008-05-01T11:44:00.000-04:00please use tinyurl.com when you post links<BR/><BR/>otherwise it doesn't fit into the comments section. thanksTraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-43840582075809667902008-05-01T11:17:00.000-04:002008-05-01T11:17:00.000-04:00An interesting article in Fortune Magazine about MOS.<BR/><BR/>http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/28/news/companies/mosaic.fortune/index.htm<BR/><BR/>The article also has some pictures of their plantpraveenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13667970151880837018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-65381760457645254672008-05-01T09:39:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:39:00.000-04:00http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080417-9999-1n17inflate.html<BR/><BR/>Great Graphic on how the government measures inflation.dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08500359981802753931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-13907376929424550602008-04-30T19:59:00.000-04:002008-04-30T19:59:00.000-04:00BD<BR/><BR/>probably a case where downside is "relatively limited" but it might be sideways action for a while<BR/><BR/>I continue to see this problem. The higher US gas prices go the more you have demand destruction. It didnt happen at $2, or $2.50 like predicted. Even at $3. It is happening at $3.50+.<BR/><BR/>So gasoline is local but crude is global. So your input is based on the "relatively strong" global economy and your output is based on a "weak" (unless your an exporters or live in Iowa, Texas or Wyoming) local economy. So your crack spread will be under pressure.<BR/><BR/>If oil rolls over your golden. Next Fed meeting is 8 weeks which means in 7 weeks the call for Fed to stop and "talk about their fight on inflation" will begin anew, and all the commodities will sell off as hedge funds rotate into financials, retailers, and the like anticipating the "strong stance on inflation"... but between now and then? Could go either way. The Fed continues to flood the world with currency. Oil, priced in dollars has no reason to go down other than for 'technical reasons'<BR/><BR/>Your bet is that the hedge funds move in that direction (strong dollar). I don't know what their super computers are thinking myself... we shall soon see. I could see all these weak dollar plays reversing right back up within days and go back to new highs. Or go down. We shall let the price action dictate it. I don't like to stand against 20,000 hedge fund computers all playing the same trend. We'll see what they are thinking beginning tomorrow.<BR/><BR/>I do like your conviction - you keep going for weak oil plays, if not airlines, then refiners, if not refiners, then DUG. Eventually one is going to hit ;)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-57002049732881810882008-04-30T19:51:00.000-04:002008-04-30T19:51:00.000-04:00Interesting articles on food shortage. I was hoping for more from the Fed today but it seems like oil is going to have its way for awhile longer. What do you think about the refiners? GS, S&P, Argus, etc. all believe now is a good time to get in. That premise is okay if oil corrects or gas prices rise, but I'm second guessing myself.Bluedoghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13620622716492473197noreply@blogger.com