Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Adding to Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Given the rioting in more 'calm' parts of the worl...

2008-06-10T12:06:00.000-04:00

Given the rioting in more 'calm' parts of the world, I'd suspect that they may not cut the subsidies all that much. But I'm hoping the scare, sends stocks down. I haven't heard much of the 'post olympic cut' theory out there in the media yet, so there is still that potential catalyst. Even so, I think a cut in the subsidies will be offset by more people having cars, and just using more oil as they transition into the middle class. So, such a pullback may be rather quick. But right now, today, it does seem to be the perfect storm for high oil prices.

Thanks, I wasnt thinking of the airlinesI was thin...

2008-06-10T11:56:00.000-04:00

Thanks, I wasnt thinking of the airlines

I was thinking about the over taxed consumers who would now be facing larger energy (maybe even food) costs - I will be very interested to see how far China is willing to go (if at all) - social unrest is a major issue and their trade surplus is so extreme perhaps they can foot the bill.

Also could see a good scenario for oil to return to $100-$110 so maybe it will be a moot point.

We shall see.

Hi Mark,If the subsidies get cut, that should actu...

2008-06-10T11:49:00.000-04:00

Hi Mark,

If the subsidies get cut, that should actually help the travel industry for airlines. So perhaps that actually nets out.

Here's an article that also adds a different perspective on the thesis. Note the big numbers on Airline Infrastructure building in China. That would surely bring costs down, and reach more consumers.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11488749