tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1654176398977136514..comments2008-05-28T13:03:12.450-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-24377357294538603452008-05-28T13:03:00.000-04:002008-05-28T13:03:00.000-04:00Hi Rusten<BR/><BR/>Things are always tricky around a key moving average like this. You have to be prepared to change course - as I wrote in the post ; i.e. if they reversed quickly, so would I. <BR/><BR/>The S&P 500 was a great example - last Monday it broke through the 200 day moving average mid day - that would be a "key signal" to bring in more buys. Then within hours it reversed, sold off, and we have lost 3.5% by the end of the week. Mother market is ironic like that. <BR/><BR/>You see that in a lot of individual charts; technical analysis is not science, more art. They are looking solid today but not enough to make me change my decision.<BR/><BR/>A lot of times the same happens on the way up... a stock is below a key resistance area - than snuggles up to that line - so you might sell, expecting a sell off. Then it surprises you and blasts though - well you just buy back as the condition improved. You lose on transactions costs and you pay maybe 2-3% higher but that is the "insurance" cost you pay for what would normally be a selloff that happens at that point.<BR/><BR/>Or you can just tuck under pillow and come back in a year, I do believe $200 is still very viable. But that doesnt mean it cannot go to $105 first ;) (MOS)<BR/><BR/>Main thing is to be flexible. And charts don't always work. Nothing does :) But finding things that work 70% puts the odds in your favor.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-78745348174212602722008-05-28T12:45:00.000-04:002008-05-28T12:45:00.000-04:00Funny, I purchased a decent amount of MOS yesterday right before I read this and was kicking myself when I got home last night. Then it rockets up today. I suppose with the everyone and their mom in the Potashes this type of volatility is to be expected but we're down and up almost 5% on back-to-back days without a catalyst in sight. I've been trying to trade around a core position in MOS and POT and I guess I got lucky with the timing yesterday but I think I'm going to give up and try to hold for 6 months or so. I agree with your core premise of a $200 target price for MOS but with such volatilty I'm afraid to try and guess the right entry and exit points -- the chart doesn't seem to be necessarily helpful . . . <BR/>-RustenRustenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12866879479201117670noreply@blogger.com