tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1582466130016782914..comments2008-12-20T15:32:17.598-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-11196296914035218002008-12-20T15:32:00.000-05:002008-12-20T15:32:00.000-05:00Stonefoxcapital: I was just reading up on contango and backwardization as the forward months for oil are considerably higher, even allowing for companies like Shell taht are buying oil now and storing it in tankers (I heard they are storing in NAT and EXM tankers.. for future sales as shipping is so cheap now.) I was looking at buying some April calls on USO (DXO doesn't have options).. So I began looking for info on how contango affects future oil prices... It's more complex that I had expected, so I'm not sure I'll buy.. One article that is short and is the clearest that I found is: <BR/><BR/>http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article146.html<BR/><BR/>jeganjeganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05850061548373752817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-73897971291243796752008-12-19T20:33:00.000-05:002008-12-19T20:33:00.000-05:00I was talking to several professional futures traders I know.<BR/><BR/>Oil was over $40 for FEB contract, but when they roll over and FEB becomes spot...expect a possible little pop.<BR/><BR/>there is so much retail money in oil...it must go lower when retail bails. <BR/><BR/>Look on message boards...all the retail want to long oil..because they paid $4.00+ gas and think this price is cheap.<BR/><BR/>They will get hammered. Oil may see 20s because of that.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>The above is the common thesis of many traders..I think someone on RM discusses this.billman101289http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-57379575193728294932008-12-19T17:46:00.000-05:002008-12-19T17:46:00.000-05:00Actually the future months on oil are all above 40 bucks so it doesn't seem that oil has broken that support. Though I'll confess to not being an expert on how the rolling months in oil factor into technicals.Stonefoxcapitalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00583540825602471042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-15471400603637216652008-12-19T17:09:00.000-05:002008-12-19T17:09:00.000-05:00I don't know, all I can assume is "it cannot get worst" or "stimulus will cause Americans go get back into using their home as ATM" and "2nd half 2009 recovery" is on the horizon.<BR/><BR/>IYR is back near the 50 day moving average so, thus far its just reversion to a mean trade. So thats a normal move - a few of those really killed REITs also were able to refinance debt i.e. kick the can down the road, which the market would like.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-38081107324988909122008-12-19T16:49:00.000-05:002008-12-19T16:49:00.000-05:00What is the hedge fund thesis driving commercial real estate stocks?DoubleDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17158057074246091524noreply@blogger.com