tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1578708807332937445..comments2008-08-26T18:55:35.725-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-49462527847142424952008-08-26T18:55:00.000-04:002008-08-26T18:55:00.000-04:00Well that is the arguement<BR/><BR/>if you are of conviction that commodities peaked and they will be substantially lower 6-12 months out you are on 1 side of the fence<BR/><BR/>the other side is commodities are either going to be slightly lower, around here, or slightly higher in next 6-12 months<BR/><BR/>that would provide a different set of future outcomes<BR/><BR/>since we don't know which is the truth, the market is vacillating. Daily.<BR/><BR/>It is a market full of uncertainty and hence the change in direction almost daily based on this news or that. Not a market for investors in my mind.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-26984748644373032492008-08-26T18:18:00.000-04:002008-08-26T18:18:00.000-04:00This split personality market is driving me crazy. We've got the thought that lower commodity prices will lead to higher consumer spending, but then you got people that get hung up on backward looking reports like these. Neither report includes data from August. Of course, consumer spending was weak in July as inflation raged to 27 yr highs, but what happened to a forward looking market? Aug will show dramatically lower inflation and we're already seeing signs that the consumer is getting more confident. At some point, the market should cross over to where we'll get both reports of lower inflation in Aug and news that spending is improving. Market will rally then.Stonefoxcapitalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00583540825602471042noreply@blogger.com