Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Trimming Some Positions

Mark,You are very lucky with today action, part of...

2008-01-25T19:11:00.000-05:00

Mark,

You are very lucky with today action, part of it is because your holding is in the best sector, everybody is position on these same names, so they can rally to the 50 days, the next trip down, these name will have a brutal haircut. Look at the metal sector, like FCX, PCU as a roadmap for pot and mos. Another poster have this point on another blog that i find very accurate after reviewing many charts.
"All large down moves begin with a compact top a 5 point reversal with a subsequent breach or probe,followed by a euphoric rise back into the neckline area.This rise gives way to collapse .The key is not in looking at the averages but individual stocks that were in blowoff tops ie leaders such as GOOG,AAPL,RIMM,GS,DE,BA,3M ect.There charts embody the outright speculation found at great tops as in 2000 in the Nasdaq leaders."
Think about it and let us know, if your current plan is good enough for this environment.

The day to day gyrations in the market are just ve...

2008-01-25T12:18:00.000-05:00

The day to day gyrations in the market are just very hard to game. No one really does it successfully over the long run - but it doesnt matter most of the time, but in periods of huge angst or for daytraders it does matter.

Not sure on MHS, I cut it back to a tiny position - MO Is also stinking so I assume now that all recession fears are taken care of these stocks are useless? lol. I saw ESRX which is MHS peer was weak before MHS weakened. Maybe something in the industry. Thats the problem with safe havens - they all have their own specific issues.

I was expecting a sell off today but not until the...

2008-01-25T11:59:00.000-05:00

I was expecting a sell off today but not until the latter half of the day. I thought the good earnings from MSFT, CAT, and HON would drive a small rally, not a sell off.

What is going on with MHS? I know they just did a split but it hasn't been participating in the rally at all.

Doesn't make much sense to me considering the Chin...

2008-01-25T11:39:00.000-05:00

Doesn't make much sense to me considering the China bank disclosure that they had subprime exposure was the thing that caused Asia to melt down 7-8 hours earlier. I am sure its possible it could of exaggerated the move though if its true but I also find it inplausible that 1 trader could lose $7 billion. It sounds like a cover up for something else. Risk controls cannot be that bad in any major bank..

I think the whole market is quite nervous and I still hope for a more meaningful move up. But just in case I don't want to be caught so poorly positioned as I was the past 1.5 weeks. Which I am sure is the same for many others. If I look at chart after chart, what I see now are stocks that had broken down to near their 200 day moving averages quickly in 2.5 sessions rally to just under their 50 day. I can see this in about 20 different positions in the fund. Now the question is do they fall back? Or burst through the 50 day and move upward? THe most likely scenario is retreat but who knows. Sadly market timing is half the battle in this environment since fundamentals are quite ignored. But you can see what stocks are ramping hard once the market has any sort of semblance of normalcy so its good to see these stocks rebound so well. At least confirms people want to be in these stocks when the coast is clear. Question is, when will the coast truly be clear?

Wow... talk about selling into a rally. I guess e...

2008-01-25T11:23:00.000-05:00

Wow... talk about selling into a rally. I guess everybody has the same idea. I should have dumped those MSFT calls at the open. Oh well.

Hey so what are your thoughts on the rumors that the futures being down huge on Monday was caused by Societe Generale unwiding the damage of some rogue trader causing the FED to make an emergency cut.