tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post133367866839023881..comments2008-12-04T11:39:05.940-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-58269986727294462172008-12-04T11:39:00.000-05:002008-12-04T11:39:00.000-05:00This just seems like a bad idea. It just delays any pain unless you assume mortgage rates will stabilize at 4.5%. At some point rates will have to increase which will limit any upside in real estate for a long time. As an investor, I'd be hesitant to jump into a market when borrowing costs are pretty much assured to increase. So in essence we're gonna to get first time to buyers to jump at what seems like a good deal on house and then have them realize that 10 yrs later their house hasn't gone up in price b/c of rising rates.Stonefoxcapitalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00583540825602471042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-32039238466609654462008-12-04T10:39:00.000-05:002008-12-04T10:39:00.000-05:00TM: As you know, I have stated that long term Treasuries are poised to undergo a secular trend change. We should see higher yields and lower bond prices. However, last month and as I wrote about recently, there was risk in the short term for this to happen. Essentially, the confirmation of higher yields we got in Sept fell apart and we are now lower.<BR/><BR/>More pointedly to your outliers and predictions for 2009: you have to wonder if yields/ bonds aren't in their own bubble as well. This lunacy (market intervention) is not sustainable (which is a good criteria for a bubble). Anyway, will higher yields be the mother of all bubbles? Stocks have cratered in 2000 and 2008; commodities have cratered in 2008; will 2009 be the year for bonds?Guy M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.com