tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post128566303224737343..comments2008-03-20T14:06:42.592-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-80590706332624920382008-03-20T14:06:00.000-04:002008-03-20T14:06:00.000-04:00lol - someone asked me that a long time ago in the blog. I don't have any easy answer but simply reading, absorbing, thinking, reading, observing, reading, reading, reading. I read a lot - and I try to read outside the US a lot. Generally everything here is very inward looking with a sort of narcisstic arrogance - i.e. we are bulletproof. If you listen to Western Europeans you get a different viewpoint on many issues - not necessarily right or wrong, but just different. Or Asians. Or South Americans. Mostly just a lot of osmosis - take the good, take the bad, take viewpoints that somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, mix, stir, and spit out something that is hopefully half way right. <BR/><BR/>I am also biased by personal experiences and interaction with a lot of humans in the state I live in. So I could be excessively negative due to that. I dont think the rest of the US will get as bad as we have it here, but it is striking to see the lowering of quality of life for the bottom 80%. The top 2% it is little unchanged. The next 3-10% have some minor changes to make. The 11-20% percentile (white collar, professional, middle management, and small business) now for the first time are having to make serious life changes. And those in the 21-70% really have seen secular changes in lifestyle over past half decade. In the past it was cyclical - this time it is secular - but again its tied to automotive more than anything. But I think its a canary in the coal mine to some degree - but again we have unique circumstances. <BR/><BR/>I just wonder what we, as a country, have left to produce as we give away industry after industry - most old line "blue collar" - but really we cannot have a 100% service, white collar economy - this brings in no capital from the outside. So instead we simply recirculate borrowed money or "printed money" and call this a growing economy - strange. But hey we still have entertainment, coal, agriculture, some oil, and some remnants of mfg left to export... but I just don't see an economy so dependent on 'serving' each other creating much 'added' value - it just appears to be the same money recirculating for the vast majority of our economy. Without leverage and credit where do we really get? But maybe we have some new innovations in tech or alternative energies that can lead the next wave up for us.<BR/><BR/>Either way its a global playing field now, and I worry we really don't realize that or take it seriously - might be a few decades before we do. And where we will be by then is worrisome.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-90475732655766843922008-03-20T13:46:00.000-04:002008-03-20T13:46:00.000-04:00How do you develop your thesis regarding various topics?Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.com