tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1188649014561411710..comments2008-01-14T10:03:15.548-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-16343858728731441892008-01-14T10:03:00.000-05:002008-01-14T10:03:00.000-05:00I dont recall saying they are great investments. I have said in between dead cat bounces of 15-25% off very oversold levels I expect these to trade sideways at best for quite a while. The investment banks being the exception because at some point they will have wirtten off this junk and they are not exposed to the consumer.<BR/><BR/>My comment was they won't go bankrupt due to their quasi public status. Both have been riddled with scandal, bad accounting, and bad management. If they were not protected by the halo of the US govt they would of been in far worse shape over the past decade and probably one or both not in business.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-12988233610482953922008-01-14T03:43:00.000-05:002008-01-14T03:43:00.000-05:00I agree FNM and FRE will never be allowed to go bankrupt but don't you think they still have a ways to go before they bottom. One of the experts who have been calling this entire subprime mess from the beginning is Jim Rogers (along with you of course). Every time I see him on TV all he says is short the financials, investment banks, FNM, FRE, and go long agriculture (the commondity). He's been saying this last spring even when the market was making all time highs in the summer and fall. He reiterated this last week. I don't quite understand how FNM and FRE business model works but I'm inclined to believe that he is right.<BR/><BR/>By the way, I think you should be honored I just mentioned you and Jim Rogers in the same sentence.T-Raderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16892169651369153159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-28703533614904020362008-01-13T16:42:00.000-05:002008-01-13T16:42:00.000-05:00Hi Edward. FNM and FRE are quasi public companies, they trade on public exchanges and all but they are quite different entities. They will never be allowed to go out of business - recently when they tried to raise money they had no problem while other companies in similar situation would of had a of problems. The difference is the implicit guarantee is the US govt will come to the rescue if necessary.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-22604681335362966332008-01-11T22:40:00.000-05:002008-01-11T22:40:00.000-05:00I am new to this blog. Been reading it for a while.<BR/>Question: If you are predicting homebuilders going bankrupt, would you also say that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to have trouble too? Or is the govt going to step in just like CFC?Edwardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04684538855677977180noreply@blogger.com