tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1009574679120606929..comments2008-10-07T13:14:16.852-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-69183585747777543222008-10-07T13:14:00.000-04:002008-10-07T13:14:00.000-04:00Agreed with your caution regarding large oversold bounces...I just don't know what the catalyst will be for such a bounce.<BR/><BR/>Retail numbers this quarter are going to be bad.<BR/><BR/>The world's central banks are increasingly signaling a willingness to cut interest rates...and the markets don't seem to be responding like they have in the past.<BR/><BR/>Basically, I don't see a clear catalyst on the horizon for a rally in the near future. <BR/><BR/>You mentioned a "buyer's strike" yesterday and I think that phrase is 100% accurate. It could just continue to be a slow bleed downwards because no one has any serious conviction on the long side.<BR/><BR/>Keep up the good work. FWIW, I think you'd do better in a hedge fund because you'd be able to short individual names (which you've correctly predicted with uncanny accuracy - remember Coach?)Brianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06708811091120040283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-72902194792665078462008-10-07T12:22:00.000-04:002008-10-07T12:22:00.000-04:00Most of the worst of breed has been beaten with an ugly stick<BR/><BR/>in the right side of the blog is an entry called Things Ive been Negative on since the fall<BR/><BR/>I'd look through that list, but frankly I'd be waiting for at least some rally to short heavily. Many of these stocks like the casinos, Whole Food Markets, some smaller restaurants, some smaller retailers are so beaten up - you'd expect any decent rally in the market to push them up quite a bit. <BR/><BR/>What I said to people last year - is go through a typical families list of activities and think of the things they will cut back on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd<BR/><BR/>then short those things<BR/><BR/>trips to Las Vegas, eating "organic" food at Whole Foods, eating out at restaurants, buying clothing - those were very easy shorts in fall 07. Now its a bit tricker as you go along since every 2-3 months they will have huge oversold rallies. But I find all those rallies to be shortable until the US economy truly returns.<BR/><BR/>In fact one could make an arguement that the stocks that have not been beaten with an ugly stick could be most vulnerable. Since every stock "seems to have his day" in this market.<BR/><BR/>We'll see. Shorting is not as easy at this stage of the market which is so oversold and when it does rally it should be vicious at least for a few days. But maybe we go lower first.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-16253201508729466522008-10-07T11:50:00.000-04:002008-10-07T11:50:00.000-04:00Hi Mark,<BR/><BR/>I always find your "I'd short this name if I could..." analysis very insightful. As such, there is clearly more downside to consumer discretionary stocks than upside over the coming quarter(s). You got out of BWLD and BUCKLE even though they are best of breed in this market segment - which stocks are the "worst of breed" in this particular space?Brianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06708811091120040283noreply@blogger.com