Friday, November 18, 2011

Will Europe Ruin the Traditional Thanksgiving Week Rally?

Should be interesting to see if head traders take off early next week as they traditionally do ahead of the Thansksgiving holiday.  Long time market participants recognize the positive nature of Thanksgiving week, which tends to drift upward on very light volume - especially so on the two days bracketing Thanksgiving itself.  Not sure why that is.... maybe good spirits, or maybe because those days are dominated by those just looking for quick beta trades.   Whatever the case the data over the past 70 years shakes out very positively:
  • Since the holiday was officially recognized in 1941, the S&P has averaged a 0.49% gain for the week, with positive moves 64% of the time
  • As a comparison, since 1941 the average one-week return for the S&P is 0.16%, and positive 56% of the time.
Since all the trading nowadays is based on European yields, maybe the big money will check in each morning to see if the ECB is buying sovereign debt, and as long as yields dont pop north of 7% on Italian debt, or Spanish debt doesn't start surging, they'll leave next week to the junior traders so we can get our normal happy happy time.

What would be a fantastic event (in terms of drama), would be if next Thursday there was some wicked movement in European markets, while we are locked out.... ooohh....

Of course, adding to the trickery, is the fact that the inside traders in Congress have a deadline for the Super Committee on the 23rd as well.  So the chances for the traditional snoozefest next week seem slim.

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