Friday, November 25, 2011

S&P Futures Indicate Down 8.... Which Might be the Best Opening of the Week

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Stop me if you've heard this one before - U.S. indexes look to open weak on euro sovereign debt worries.  Thankfully today we only have to deal with it for 3.5 hours.  Italian 10 years are back over 7%... well back.  This is shaping up to be one of the worst Thanksgiving weeks on record, we we already see a loss of 4.7% in the first 3 days of it.  Traditionally the two days that sandwich Thursday are quite good.  That also looks to be in jeopardy.  It just seems like a holding pattern until the market breaks Merkel's spirits.

We are not yet oversold on many of the secondary indicators but getting there.  Hence the lower we go the more apt we are for a dead cat bounce somewhere along the line.  When that happens expect great cheer and CNBC celebration.  But for intermediate term bullishness at minimum we need to get back over the 50 day simple moving average which is running away from us near 1207 (and rising).  But frankly - until proven otherwise - those bounces are ones to be used to sell ... although stop losses should have already reduced a trader's portfolio dramatically during this selloff.



One of my favorite indicators, the percent of S&P 500 stocks is at 'quite oversold' but as mentioned above - not any sort of extreme.


In retrospect, can we believe we had one of the best October rallies in history due to a 'solution' for Europe (the ESFS) which now is seen as a non starter? Quite amazing really.

On a side note, how sick is it some people have been shopping for 11 hours already.  The national obsession with consumption is a bit off putting, at least from this perch.

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