Monday, November 21, 2011

Crisis Does Not Take a Break for the Holidays

As mentioned Friday, we resolved a technical condition on the charts (a 'triangle'), by breach of the narrowing range (see chart here)  to the downside.  I was surprised by the general level of apathy to this development but perhaps it is because it seems half of Wall Street takes an early weekend on Fridays.  True to form, we are waking up this morning to anti apathy as futures are screaming downward.  The S&P 500 is currently in the mid 1190s, which will be the lowest level since the early October breakout.

The 50 day (simple) moving average down at 1206 was the last real support so tactical traders once again need to be pulling in their horns and go to a conservative stance, until the charts speak otherwise.  We are back to 'broken' on most of the major indexes, even though we can now expect furious oversold, dead cat bounces to arrive sooner or later.

Europe has been Europe - Spanish yields have crossed over 6.50% and inch towards the 7% that cause general consternation.  It seems the ECB generally comes into the market and buys just enough to keep yields for Italy and Spain in current range, and then steps back.  There was a report late last week that the ECB is limiting itself to 20B euros ($27B USD) a week... which still adds up significantly ($1.4T if that was maximized).

Back in the U.S. the 'Super Committee' is showing once again that the only thing working in D.C. is the ability of Congress to inflate their portfolios with insider trading tips.  In the big scheme of things $1.2T over a DECADE is a drop in the bucket ($120B a year) relative to a $14T economy and $3T+ of spending a year.  But with one side unwilling to budge on taxes on the other unwilling to budge on entitlements even with the accounting games (i.e. using new baselines, changing the way inflation is adjusted) these fools don't seem to be able to accomplish the bare minimum.

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