Friday, October 7, 2011

September Employment 103K vs Expectation of 60K, Unemployment Rate Steady at 9.1%

Markets are reacting favorably this morning to a 'better than expected' figure for employment.  The bar remains very low as the country needs 125K+ jobs a month simply to keep up with population growth, but with 60K as an expectation this figure of slightly over 103K is deemed positive.   As mentioned a few times this week, 45K of the 'job creation' was Verizon workers returning from strike.

Private sector added 137K, government dropped 35K.

Unemployment rate remained steady at 9.1%.

Hourly wages gained 0.2%

U-6 (broader measure of unemployment, including those who are working part time but wish for full time jobs, etc) jumped sharply from 16.2% to 16.5%.

Previous two months were revised upward by 99K total (positive) - usually the government seems to be revising figures downward not upward, so this is a change.

In a touch of irony, August's figures were originally counted as 0.  It has been revised up to 57K.  If you add back the striking Verizon workers, August's growth would have been.... 103K.  (which just so happens to be this month's net growth as well).  Of course if you add back the striking workers from August's figures, you'd need to subtract them from September's.


As always what the true number will be after revisions - who knows.  (see the previous month's revisions)  But the market reacts to each economic data point as gospel.

As mentioned yesterday, a better than expected jobs figure could put us nearer to that 1188ish level - which would be a remarkable move since Tuesday afternoon.  Well, it's already a remarkable move of some 9%.

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