Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Rally Impressive in Light of IBM

Due to the way the DJIA weighs stocks, the higher the stock price the bigger the influence.  Hence the 0.5% gain in that index is all the more impressive today, with IBM down about 9 points (which I believe is equivalent to about 63-65 Dow points).

We continue to act 'constructively', as the 50 day moving average area (up to S&P 1191) held like a peach this morning - low of the day 1191.48.  Like clockwork.

As important, 'bad news' is now getting ignored - the PPI came in 'hot' but everyone knows the Fed doesn't care about any inflation readings - if anything it just means potential QE3 is pushed out a few meetings, but they won't be tightening for half a decade, so inflation reports are moot for a few years.  Earnings reports last nite and this morning were not impressive but the market is in a happy place so it's a character change.

Some reports on the European ESFS situation is the leading plan is for that vehicle to accept the first 20, 30%ish of losses on debt purchases by private investors, hence 'levering' it to about a $1 trillion entity.  Kicking the can always makes the market happy, so people seem to be sanguine about what Europe is doing.

Technically, we still want to see this S&P over 1240 level to be more intermediate term bullish.

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