Monday, October 3, 2011

New Quarter, Same Issues

While the calendar changes, and a new quarter begins - we are in the same quagmire we faced as we exited the last quarter.  We are not even getting the beginning of month/beginning of quarter ramp up we were so used to in many months in 2010 and early 2011.

S&P 1120 has been a level cited so many times the past few months as support, and it looks to be tested yet again this morning.  As of this writing it looks like the S&P 500 might pierce it, but let's wait for the open.  Below 1120 is 1100 but that secondary level has not been in play for a long time.  We'll deal with what happens at 1100 or below if/when we get there.

Troubling was the weakness in leadership stocks late last week, or what I call 'the generals'.  There were a lot of blowups in some names a lot of people are hiding out in - it looked like a forced liquidation to me the day it happened, but something to keep an eye on.


As for the economic docket, this is the one week of the month where news comes hot and heavy ... and more importantly people in the market actually pay attention (they've more or less given up on housing or inflation data as market moving).

Key reports:

Monday - ISM Manufacturing 10 AM, consensus 50.5 (down from 50.6)
Wednesday - ADP Employment 8:15 AM, consensus 90K (down from 91K) [of course this figure was nowhere near close what the government reported last month(
ISM Non Manufacturing 10 AM, consensus 52.9 (down from 53.5)
Friday - Employment report 8:30 AM, consensus +65,000 - of which 45,000 will be returning Verizon workers from strike. (up from 0 last month).  Unemployment rate consensus 9.2%.

Over in Greece, it looks like they have missed their deficit targets yet again (yawn).

Thankfully, earning reports begin soon, so we'll have something to talk about that is not macro related.

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