Thursday, October 27, 2011

First Pass of Q3 GDP is 2.5%

I don't take too much stock in the GDP figures due to how they are created - the agency that creates GDP does not even use the same inflation figures as what is considered official (CPI).  Generally it's been a far lower inflation figure, which inflates GDP but that's a conversation we've had many times in the past.   Further, this figure gets revised twice more so any reaction to the data today is usually humorous in light of a number that sometimes is 30-50% different a few months from now.  But (drumroll) we have the best GDP figure of the year at 2.5%.

Ironically this is during a time frame the Fed stopped QE, and commodity prices - namely gasoline - dropped.  Meanwhile, while the Fed was going hot and heavy driving up asset prices we had much weaker GDP in Q1 and Q2.  Obviously they don't see that connection as the drum beat starts for QE3.  To that end, personal consumption jumped to 2.4% growth versus 0.7% the previous quarter.   So it was finally a quarter that the 2% payroll tax cut could be enjoyed by the masses, rather than being handed to the Saudis.

Inflation in this report was offered at 2.0%, excluding food and energy: 1.8%.  

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