Friday, September 2, 2011

Yikes. 0 Job Growth, as Unemployment Rate Stays Steady at 9.1%

Another ugly report - not sure why we are not ripping higher in futures as this guarantees more Fed assistance!  Aren't we happy?

Despite what I am sure will be another hefty gain in via the fantasy land of the birth death model [Jan 27, 2008: Birth Death Model], there was zero job creation in Cramerica in August.  Unemployment rate stayed steady at 9.1% - I will have to dig in a bit to find the employment participation figure.

EDIT 8:45 AM: Birth death came in at +87,000 jobs. ;)  Translated - the government is translating small business is booming across America, creating a hefty near 100K jobs while the rest of the country was essentially zero.  Seems reasonable (cough).

June and July were revised DOWN 58,000 - shocker right?  Always seems like the government revised data downward after Wall Street reacts to it.

Average hourly earnings fell 3 cents. Average hourly workweek dropped from 34.3 to 34.2 (that is important as it is akin to losing a few hundred K jobs).

Some anomalies - the Verizon strike was counted as 45,000 jobs lost.  That was offset by a return of Minnesota state workers to the tune of 22,000.  That nets to +23,000 jobs created if you wish.  Expectations were just below 70K.  As always we need 125K minimum just to keep up with population growth.

U6 rate (marginally attached + discouraged): 16.2%

EDIT 8:55 AM - Labor force participation rate shockingly increased 0.1% to 64.0%.  Way below the trend of 66-67% still.

Roubini is tweeting another 165,000 Americans left the workforce - which is why the unemployment rate did not go higher.  Again if we had a normal work force participation rate, we'd have unemploymen trates 2% higher than currently being reported.

The laser like focus on these figures are silly when they get revised every which way down the road.  The reality is this economy needs to be producing 250-350K type of jobs a month to get us out of the hole.  We have never done that this entire 'recovery'.

Full report here.

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