Friday, September 16, 2011

That Worked Out Nicely

Warning: sometimes the author can look a lot smarter than he truly is.  My target this week once we began rallying has been S&P 1218, the 50 day moving average - simply because that is where the index stalled three weeks ago.  I didn't expect that to happen by Friday but it did - and once we hit it, we reversed nicely (thus far) and have given back over 10 S&P points.  I'll consider that a victory hah.

If we did not have such headline risk thru next Wednesday, I'd be far more interested in leaning against this market here, with 1220ish as my stop out.

For now the market needs to break through resistance and stay there, to make a change of trend - it needs to prove itself.   The 'easy part' of the rally has happened (although this time around it was only 'easy' in retrospect) Volume has been relatively weak for most of this rally, but as those who have been around in 2009 and 2010 know, volume no longer seem to be part of the guidebook for rallies.

We had another putrid consumer confidence number this morning but the market did not care.  Of course, actions speak louder than confidence, but we continue to see numbers consistent with recession on Main Street.   That said, Tiffany & Co. should have a good weekend as central bankers (and other rumors) helped create a lot of paper wealth for the upper 5% in the past 4 days.  A great week for Park Avenue, which I suppose is theoretically part of Main Street. :)

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