Friday, September 9, 2011

Smack Dab Back to the Middle of this Mega Range - and Germany Prepares for Greek Failure

I mentioned early in the week we are simply in a huge trading range of roughly 100 S&P points, between 1120ish and 1220ish.  Today's excuse du jour is an ECB member resigning due to his resistance to bond buying, and (wait for it) worries about Greece.  If I had a nickel for every time I wrote "worries about Greece" the past two years.  Germany also just announced they are preparing to shield their banks from Greek default - which means you know what's coming down the pike.  We've just wasted a lot of time waiting for the inevitable.
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is preparing plans to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the terms of its aid package and defaults, three coalition officials said.
  • The emergency plan involves measures to help banks and insurers that face a possible 50 percent loss on their Greek bonds if the next tranche of Greece’s bailout is withheld, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deliberations are being held in private. The successor to the German government’s bank-rescue fund introduced in 2008 might be enrolled to help recapitalize the banks, one of the people said. 
  • The existence of a “Plan B” underscores German concerns that Greece’s failure to stick to budget-cutting targets threatens European efforts to tame the debt crisis rattling the euro. German lawmakers stepped up their criticism of Greece this week, threatening to withhold aid unless it meets the terms of its austerity package, after an international mission to Athens suspended its report on the country’s progress. 

With that we are essentially smack dab in the middle of this mega range.  European markets have now closed (badly).

These 1, 2, 3% daily moves up or down (much of it premarket gapping) are not healthy - even the days we see the market up 2 or 3% and everyone is clapping like seals.  That doesn't signify any health - just computers (and what remain of humans) darting in and out reacting to every news item, in a very unstable environment.  One day this week we had gold down nearly 3%, and the next day almost reversed the entire move.  Complete nonsense action.

It will be safer above S&P 1250 to be a buyer... or much lower.  Until then it looks like consolidation after a big move down - which is not bullish action.  In this mega range we just are getting a lot of white noise and it's only an environment for daytraders or people who hold positions for 48-72 hours.  A chop zone.  Don't read anything into the 'action' unless/until we break out of this range.

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