Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Everything is Looking Up

(note: original title for this post was "Risk On!!")

Unlike the past 4-5 days, this is truly a "student body left" day, as even gold (+5%) and silver are ramping sharply this morning, along with crude oil.  The mega bailout proposal from Europe has everyone giddy - although it was a strange delayed reaction yesterday.  Apparently all the world's economic ills won't matter this week - we'll worry about economic reports next week.

The market the past two and half weeks is starting to look like a sign wave - huge swooping moves up and down.  Two weeks ago it was a 6%+ rally, last week was a 6%+ fall, and this week we are well on the way to a 6%+ rally, 2% up yesterday and this morning we have another 1.5%+ in the can just in the premarket.

The mega range of 100 points from 1120 to 1220 remains the one people are trading, and with 4 days left in the quarter normally we get our quarter end "mark ups" in days 2-4 before the end of quarter (Friday), which would be Tue-Thur.   Yesterday we were talking downside targets - and now in this bipolar market we immediately have to switch to upside targets.  Normally, I'd say S&P 1220 - because saying that has worked the past few months, but that 50 day moving average is now down to 1205ish, so I'll be curious if that provides resistance.

It remains a market to simply buy en masse, or sell en masse on political macro headlines - very little thinking at this time.  I look forward to October and some earnings reports, so we can react to something other than breaking news from said European officials.

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