Friday, September 16, 2011

Almost There

A remarkable week - nonstop rally since Monday afternoon and we are almost to the first resistance area [50 day moving average] of 1218 on the S&P 500. (slightly lower now)  Those who think we are overbought can make a stand near here, with stop out just above - but with the European meeting creating headline risk, and "Operation Twist" bringing joy and glee next Wednesday the headline risk is still very high.

If we clear this weaker area, and get north of 1218, we have a good chance or reversing this two month trend, but until back over 1250ish I'd still be quite neutral on things.

That said, no matter how many years you do this, the change in attitude by market participants in very short periods of time NEVER stops astounding you.  Humans are not much different than lemmings.  Monday at this time we were panicked and worried about a test down to S&P 1120 ... the index had fallen to 1136 right before the rumor of Chinese and Italians discussing purchases of Italian debt was released.  It has been non stop up since.  Despite quite poor economic news ... as long as Europe gets bailed out, everyone is happy for now.

Risk on. Risk off.
Wax on. Wax off.
Student body left. Student body right.

EDIT 9:53 AM - 10 minutes later, right at S&P 1218.  Like a painting.

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