Tuesday, August 30, 2011

PIMCO's Bill Gross Admits He was Wrong on U.S. Treasuries - and by Definition Jeffrey Gundlach was Correct

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Two of the most well known bond gurus - PIMCO's Bill Gross and Doubeline's Jeffrey Gundlach had polar opposite opinions on what U.S. debt would do once QE2 ended.  [Apr 14, 2011: [Video] Bond Guru Bets Against PIMCO's Bill Gross (and Conventional Wisdom) on What Happens After QE2 Ends]  Gross was with the consensus (yields would rise) while Gundlach was with the minority - Gundlach was proven correct.

Now to give credit where credit is due, Gross is out today admitting his views were incorrect - which is a rarity in the investment community.

Via FT.com:

  • Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund for Pimco, has admitted that it was a mistake to bet so heavily against the price of US government debt.  Mr Gross emptied his $244 billion Total Return Fund of US government-related securities earlier this year in a high-profile call that has backfired as the bond market has rallied. As of Monday, Pimco’s flagship fund ranked 501th out of 589 bond funds in its category.
  • “Do I wish I had more Treasurys? Yeah, that’s pretty obvious,” Mr Gross told the Financial Times last week, adding: “I get that it was my/our mistake in thinking that the US economy can chug along at 2 percent real growth rates. It doesn’t look like it can.”
  • When the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.5 percent in January, Mr Gross warned that the risk of rising inflation made government debt a poor investment. Bond prices move in the opposite direction to bond yields, which he forecast would rise as Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve , brought the second program of bond buying, known as quantitative easing, to an end in June.
  • Mr Gross, one of the most influential voices in the bond market, reiterated his warning to avoid treasurys in June, and in the July dispatch of his widely read Investment Outlook, warned that promises to America’s ageing population made them “debt men walking”. 
  • However, this month, as turmoil in equity markets caused investors to rush to the safety of government bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield  dipped below 2 per cent, a 61-year low.
  • The move has forced Mr Gross to reassess his bearish position on US debt in recent weeks. “We’ve moderated based on the outlook for the US economy, based on what Bernanke has done at the Fed in the last month. Freezing rates for two years, that was a pretty significant statement in terms of the vulnerability of Treasurys to go down in price and up in yield,” he said.  “It’s not necessarily a flip flop, as we don’t own tons of Treasurys, but its a recognition that the US and developed economies are near the recessionary dividing point,” he said.
  • Mr Gross still argues that on a long-term basis, governments are likely to use financial repression, where the rate of inflation is higher than bond yields, to erode the value of sovereign debt over time.
  • But he also suggested that the “new normal” — Pimco’s view of the global economic outlook in which growth rates for developed countries are slower than in the past — may have to be revised downwards to a “new normal minus”.
  • Mr Gross started to buy government debt, as well as related securities and derivatives, in recent months. However, he faces a challenge to catch up to the benchmark, which has returned 4.55 percent for the year so far, versus the Total Return Fund’s 3.29 percent, according to Lipper, a research group. “When you’re underperforming the index, you go home at night and cry in your beer,” he said, adding: “It’s not fun, but who said this business should be fun. We’re too well paid to hang our heads and say boo hoo.”




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