Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Interesting Reversal thus Far

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The S&P 500 went to just below that 50 day exponential moving average, and has since reversed pretty severely to get quite close to flat on the day.  At this point we've used a lot of energy in a short time (4 days) to make a run from the low 1100s to low 1200s.  We have ISM Manufacturing tomorrow (plus Chinese PMI overnight) and the employment data Friday, which should move the market around - and then a long weekend.  It would seem reasonable to do some backing and filling before we make a run for that 200 day moving average in the mid 1200s.  As of now we're in a tight range between the 20 day moving average on the bottom (held yesterday) and 50 day on the top (where we topped out). 

Speculators now believe they have the Fed at their back once more as evidenced by the action since the speech at Jackson Hole and the leaks/hints thereafter.  So the only question is how much of a Pavlov dog reaction we get in 2011-2012 that mimics the moves of 2010 and early 2011. 

Europe apparently fell off the face of the earth and no longer matters :)



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