Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Foreign Policy: Nouriel Roubini & Ian Bremmer Debate the Double Dip Recession and if China Could End Up Like Europe's PIIGS

This piece is a few weeks old, but comes from an unlikely source - Foreign Policy Magazine.  While Nouriel Roubini is well known by now in investing circles, Ian Bremmer - of the Eurasia Group - is also one of the more interesting guests that CNBC occasionally brings on, who provides a very broad global view to his comments.

Full article link here.

With global markets in a tailspin and the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 9 percent in the past month, jittery investors are wondering whether this is a second coming of the Great Recession and whether an increasingly insolvent United States and Europe's weak periphery will be able to weather the storm. Are we seeing the first slide into a double-dip recession? Is the euro doomed? And can China stay above the fray? Foreign Policy asked two of the world's most prescient market watchers, Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer, for their views about what they see in the months and years ahead. 

Perhaps it's not surprising that Roubini, better known as Dr. Doom, sees the outlook as being "more scary" than it was two or three years ago -- but it's less systemic failures that concern him than the total inability of buffoonish politicians and weak governments to do anything about it. They're "out of policy bullets," says Roubini. 

Bremmer is a bit more sanguine. "I don't believe that we're heading for a second recession," he says. "But I think that it's going to feel like a recession for an awful lot of people." What really worries him is China: While Europe and the United States try to muddle through the mess, "the Chinese are kicking a bigger can farther down the road than anyone else." In short, the global economy might get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

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