Tuesday, August 30, 2011

August Consumer Confidence Drops to 44.5 from 52.0 Consensus

As I posted a month ago I usually don't take much stake in consumer confidence, but the readings have been SO horrid, they are worth mentioning.  We just had a reading of 44.5 versus 52.0 consensus.  (July was 59.2)  Keep in mind a reading below 70 is considering recessionary.  On the plus side it's only the worst reading since the dark days of 2009 ;)
  • The expectations barometer tumbled to 51.9 in August - the lowest since April 2009 -- from 74.9 in July, while the present-situation gauge fell to 33.3 from 35.7.

Main Street and Wall Street continue to live 2 separate lives.  I was gasping at last month's figures... this one is simply amazing.... considering we're in the 'recovery' period of the economic cycle.

As for the market, the 20 day moving average is now a (light) support.  So if bulls can hold 1192ish and the mantra of 'bad news = more Fed heroes arriving to save us' takes root things should be ok.  We're at that weird point where the 'market' may actually like bad news, since it means more steroid injections.

We've just seen a huge run off the lows the past week so some consolidation is healthy.  That said, I'm quite neutral until I see how things play out - there are a ton of news events at the end of this week, and seeing how the market reacts to the news will be an important tell.

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