Friday, August 19, 2011

Another Rough Open

As mentioned yesterday, S&P 1120 is an area you'd target for the lower end of this range.  We fell to the lower 1130s before a small bounce late in the day.  This morning in the premarket that 1120 level was tested but there has been a small rebound from the worst levels of the session as we open the day.

If 1120 breaks, the intraday low (1100) from Fed day a week ago Tuesday comes into play.  Below that - a new discussion begins.

Unfortunately nothing really has been resolved in Europe so it hangs over our heads.  A week from today is the Jackson Hole, Wyoming event in which everyone now expects a repeat of 2010 when The Bernank waved his magic wand and added 'manipulating asset prices' as the Fed's third mandate.  As we see the market eventually repealed all his 'magic' but not before a wild ride up - and then down.  So we've come full circle ironically.

Bigger picture, Europe is a mess because countries cannot devalue via monetary printing i.e. Japan, U.S.  The U.S. and Europe appear to be headed into 'technical recession' although one could argue many Americans in the bottom 2/3rds never left the recession of a few years back.  And everyone is waiting for Trichet and Bernanke to put Humpty Dumpty back together again - preferably next Friday.

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