Friday, July 8, 2011

Yikes, Government Reports 18,000 Jobs Created

Houston we have a problem.

+18,000 jobs versus the 110,000 or so expected.
57,000 in private sector versus 39,000 jobs lost in government.

Unemployment rate 9.2%

Obviously in sharp contrast to ADP yesterday.  I wouldn't read too much into any one number, but this is 2 months back to back where the government data is very poor.

Hourly wages were essentially stagnant (down 1 cent)

Average workweek fell from 34.4 to 34.3 (this is the equivalent of losing a couple hundred thousand additional jobs)

May's already paltry 54,000 figure was also revised down to 25,000.

Birth death model 'created' 131,000 jobs in June .... so those of you in the know, realize how bad the data 'really' is. [Jan 27, 2008: Monthly Jobs Report & Birth Death Model]  Birth death created 205,000 jobs in May as well.... I guess small businesses are booming across America again (at least per government statisticians)

All in all it looks like the summer of recovery 2.0 is well on it's way.  On the other hand less jobs = more corporate profits so it's not really that bad of news for Wall Street.  Just a disappointment for the day in a very overbought market.

EDIT 8:45 AM: Thinking out loud - McDonald's hired about 60,000 workers in May.  With the revision down in May's figures, McDonald's essentially created all the net hiring in the U.S. in May + June.  A pretty good statement on life for Main Street outside of Manhattan, Washington D.C. and some of the booming agriculture, great plains states.

EDIT 10:00 AM: More ugly numbers.  U-6 (broad unemployment including those marginally attached to the workforce) jumped from 15.8 to 16.2% - a huge one month spike. 

And somehow the labor force participation rate dropped another 0.1% to 64.1%.  If this rate had held steady from the beginning of the 'recovery' in June 2009 at 65.7%, the unemployment rate would be 11%.  All these dropouts from the labor force are masking a world of hurt below the surface.

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