Friday, June 10, 2011

New Lows, 6 Weeks of Losses

S&p 1295 continued to serve as excellent resistance yesterday after being the bottom in April.  If one were playing fast and nimble, a position in TZA or a few SPY puts would have paid of handsomely yesterday afternoon, in less than 24 hours.

The S&P 500 has now fallen to new lows of this selloff, and that 200 day moving average at 1262 seems like the obvious target.  At minimum there should be an oversold bounce, but frankly valuation is not that bad down at those levels even in a slowing economy.   If that level breaks with conviction we have a different conversation to deal with.

Believe it or not, some of the news outlets say the "market" (not sure if that means "the Dow") has not been down 6 weeks in a row since 2002.  Considering the carnage in second half 2008 through February 2009 that seems hard to believe.

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