Monday, June 27, 2011

Need Panic

Despite being the second longest selloff since the March 2009 bottom, there has not been significant emotion to this selling.  Aside from one day I can't recall much panic at all.  Do we 'need' panic to create a bottom.  Not always.  But it sure helps.   As we sit right above the 200 day moving average (yet again) another rule comes to mind - the more times you test a level (support or resistance) the more likely it breaks.  We have been testing this 200 day quite often the past few weeks.  I still believe it breaks, and we finally get our panic and people throwing in the towel.  Then I'll be interested in a tradeable intermediate bottom.

This morning's consumer spending numbers, in a word, suck.  But as gas prices tumble, we should see a rebound in the coming months.  Also auto production should bounce back August-ish so for once I might be somewhat more bullish than others ;).  At least for a while.  [Obviously this assumes Greek gets its bailout and the Greek people and government are happy to bail out German and French banks]

Talk in D.C. is the Dems want another stimulus program as part of the debt ceiling negotiations.  The patient needs its constant steroids, and the last batch is wearing off.

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