Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Market Gets Bored of Hearing about Greece

Hearing some interesting comments on the boob tube the past 2 days... along the lines of "bad news fatigue".  I suppose once bad news becomes tiring you can sort of forget it exists in markets.  But more likely it is clear that the global powers that be only have one solution and that is to bail out anything that moves.  So for all this drama about Greece, in the end, they will find a way to jam more debt down their throats so that German and French banks can stay whole.  Everything else is just process.

Looking at the S&P 500 technically that key 1295 level (once support as the April lows, but lately resistance) is the first area I'd look as a pivot point and above that is the 100 day moving average, now down at 1300, and the 50 day at 1308.  I would like to see all those cleared before becoming incrementally constructive about anything other than an oversold bounce.

It continues to be a winning strategy to cover shorts down there in the 1260s and re-engage in the upper 1280s to mid 1290s.  I don't know how many more cycles we're going to get of that 'easy trade' but it's been a nice winner the past few weeks.

FOMC meeting starts today and tomorrow the announcement will be earlier than normal (just after noon) as its the quarterly Q&A with The Bernank.  I expect it all to be a non event, snooze fest.

On a side note, despite a bounce overnight the Chinese market continues to show weakness - breaking to lows of the years Monday and levels not seen since last October.

(chart is 1 day delayed)

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