Thursday, June 2, 2011

Chopfest with Downward Bias

I have to admit that the action late Tuesday - which made no sense to me, as the economic data was poor and was based solely on yet another kick the can bailout to Greece - had me thinking the bulls did it yet again as a new V shaped bounce seemed in the offing.  But a new 'higher high' was not accomplished (hence the pattern was not broken) as the market closed right at the previous high of S&P 1345.    Yesterday's action of course pushed the market back in a poor technical condition, but what keeps flumoxing some of us, is each time this market looks like it is about to break down, a rally out of nowhere ensues.  But for now, we remain in this chop fest with a downward bias, although it's not been easy for the bears.

For now there is resistance at S&P 1345 and support at the intraday lows of the previous week around 1312ish - and the 100 day moving average is rising up to just below this level relatively quickly.  This has been the range for about three weeks. Bears need a break of this lower level to bring on a new round of selling.

Tomorrow's economic data (employment premarket, and ISM non manufacturing at 10 AM) most likely will determine the near term fate of stocks.  As I mentioned yesterday the one positive from yesterday's news was expectations would be lowered significantly in the ensuing 48 hours, and that happened.  Expectations for 180K jobs have been pushed down to 130Kish - and keep in mind that includes 60K+ McJobs.   With the birth death model surely adding 100K+ other jobs (from thin air) now one has to expect an upside surprise.  But bigger picture, the data has certainly been weakening for 2 months now, and the bond market has been telling us.  So you have a push pull between still solid earnings, and a deteriorating economic condition.  Which days the market cares about one or the other is relatively arbitrary.

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