Still digging through though the numbers but the first glance is very disappointing. A net 54,000 accounting for 83,000 private sector growth, versus 29,000 contraction in the public sector. The estimate for May was about 175,000 a few days ago before the ADP report Wednesday.
Initial knee jerk in the S&P 500 is a drop from -0.3% in premarket to -1.0%ish. ISM non manufacturing up at 10 AM. S&P currently around 1300...
Unemployment rate jumped to 9.1%.
Only positive on first glance is hourly earnings up 0.3%. (Year over year growth 1.8%)
Average workweek flat at 34.4 hours.
Revisions from previous two months also decreased job growth by 39,000.
The all important labor force participation rate remains punk at 64.2%; the same figure for 5 months. Hence the unemployment rate increase does NOT have anything to do with more people entering the work force (which would be a more benign explanation). A more normal labor participation rate would be adding roughly 2% to the unemployment rate. Please recall some 1M Americans have gone to the disability rolls in the past 2 years, which is obviously retarding the labor force participation rate at the margins. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans are on Disability, a Doubling versus 1990]
U-6: unemployed + marginally attached dropped from 15.9% to 15.8%.
Will revise this as I look through the numbers. But considering the McJobs creation and birth death model job creation this is really a poor number. Indeed if all 62,000 McJobs created fell in May - almost the entire net growth of jobs in the private sector was due to McDonald's. The irony is great.
Full report from BLS here.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Big Disappointment in Jobs Creation at +54,000; Unemployment Rate Jumps 9.1%
Best Of FMMF
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows