Thursday, May 26, 2011

US Dollar at Resistance

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Helping this slow motion selloff has been the strength of the U.S. dollar - the almost perfect inverse correlation, while maddening, must be respected.  The dollar is down a bit  today, but the market is not responding in kind (i.e. it normally rallies).  While this chart is delayed by a day (the dollar is under 75.80 today), one can see the obvious technical culprit holding the dollar back.





A move over this 100 day moving average would bode well for a continued move upwards in the greenback, and as long as recent patterns hold, not a great sign for the greater equity market.  We can see when the dollar first approached the 50 day moving average about four weeks ago it had a handful of days it struggled to burst through before it finally did so.  Would not be at all surprised to see a similar situation here at the 100 day.

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