Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Big Miss in ISM Non-Manufacturing at 52.8

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Wow, quite a doozy this morning from the ISM Non-Manufacturing figure - 52.8.  This is a huge drop from 57.3 in March, and way below expectations of 57.8.  While Monday's ISM Manufacturing gets all the press, that is only 11% of the economy, whereas the service sector dominates.  We will have to see in 30 days if this was an anomaly of some sort.  New orders were obliterated.  Prices paid dropped from 72.1 to 70.1 - interesting how this report is the polar opposite of manufacturing.

(for those new to these reports, above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction)

On the plus side... the slowdown in many economic figures the past 8 weeks sets us up well for QE3! Booyah!

Full report here.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Business conditions [remain] unchanged. No supply impact from the Japan earthquake/tsunami, but continue to track with the supply base." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • "Revenues are picking up slowly, but the growth is positive as compared to last month and the same month last year." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • "Looking forward with reserved caution. Cost of goods by this fall are a big worry." (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • "Continuing economic uncertainty will curtail or delay project spending for the immediate future." (Educational Services)
  • "Fuel prices continue to be challenging and in addition to shipping, are influencing the cost of materials." (Public Administration)
  • "We are seeing price increases in many areas, and the lead times are stretching out. Our business activities are improving at a moderate rate." (Wholesale Trade)
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
APRIL 2011
Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series
Index
Apr.
Series
Index
Mar.
Percent
Point
Change
Direction Rate
of
Change
Trend**
(Months)
Series
Index
Apr.
Series
Index
Mar.
Percent
Point
Change
NMI/PMI 52.8 57.3 -4.5 Growing Slower 17 60.4 61.2 -0.8
Business Activity/Production 53.7 59.7 -6.0 Growing Slower 21 63.8 69.0 -5.2
New Orders 52.7 64.1 -11.4 Growing Slower 21 61.7 63.3 -1.6
Employment 51.9 53.7 -1.8 Growing Slower 8 62.7 63.0 -0.3
Supplier Deliveries 53.0 51.5 +1.5 Slowing Faster 13 60.2 63.1 -2.9
Inventories 55.5 55.5 0.0 Growing Same 3 53.6 47.4 +6.2
Prices 70.1 72.1 -2.0 Increasing Slower 21 85.5 85.0 +0.5
Backlog of Orders 55.5 56.0 -0.5 Growing Slower 4 61.0 52.5 +8.5
New Export Orders 53.5 59.0 -5.5 Growing Slower 8 62.0 56.0 +6.0
Imports 57.0 50.0 +7.0 Growing From Unchanged 1 55.5 56.5 -1.0
Inventory Sentiment 57.5 67.0 -9.5 Too High Slower 167 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 40.5 39.5 +1.0


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