Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Bailout Bounce Quite Limp

It's not like the good ole days when a U.S. or European led bailout on a Sunday night would lead to a 2-3% gap up the next morning and buying all day.  While there was a nice 1%ish pop today off the Greece bailout 2.0, people MIGHT finally be coming to the realization that nothing is being solved with these bailouts, and it simply is kick the can.  We will be revisiting the same issues 6-9-12 months down the road.

I wanted to see the S&P 500 close over the most recent high in the mid 1340s, to mark a change in character.  Thus far we have been unable to create a "higher high", and are drifting above a few support areas.  The four day rally has also helped to offset a lot of the extreme oversold conditions in secondary technical indicators.

The dollar is down 0.4%, having been clearly beaten back from resistance at the 100 day moving average.  It says a lot when a region who is battling multiple potential defaults and just agreed to hand one of its member countries tens of billions in euros sees its currency STRENGTHEN against the greenback.  Until proven otherwise the dollar bounce looks to have been simply a technical oversold bounce as a 'crowded trade' came unwound.

[chart below is 1 day delayed]

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