Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Market is Working Off Overbought Condition via Time not Price

Much as we've seen since August 2010 (excluding the 2 quick and dirty selloff of three weeks each in November 10 and March 11), there is no pulling back in this market.  Big moves up can be consolidated by price (a pullback) or time (sideways action).  The latter has been the case consistently since QE2 was promised and then delivered to this market.  The last 4 days the S&P 500 has been in a very tight range, on piddling volume, consolidating a huge 2 week move. This action bodes well for bulls and poorly for bears - especially since all bad economic news has been ignored.  Rally, consolidate sideways, and rally some more has been the pattern of this market and until that pattern changes, traders will continue to assume it continues and act accordingly. Until we see the behavior change, it is quite useless to fight it.

I've placed the 10 day moving average on the chart below because the move up has been so relentless since August 2010 that (excluding those 2 quick corrections) we don't fall farther than level during the rallies.  In fact during the move from early December to mid February only one day (the day massive Egyptian violence broke out) was this level seriously punctured.

While this move up has again come on pathetic volume, that is nothing new to the new paradigm action - where you once looked for confirmation of moves upward by expanding volume, now we can move up constantly on a trickle of volume.   While the small and mid caps have already moved forward to new highs everyone is simply waiting for the S&P 500 to break through the old February highs in the mid 1340s so we can continue the song and dance.  I would not be surprised to see this happen via a gap up open, sooner rather than later.

As an aside, copper continues to be lost at sea and not confirming the glee in equities. Since so many old rules of the market seem to have been tossed aside, I assume (for now) this one also doesn't matter. 

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