Friday, March 25, 2011

What a Move

In the 7+ sessions since the S&P 500 hit an intraday low of 1249, it is now up 5.5%.  Still needs to take out 1330-ish to make a new "higher high" (maybe the 'Monday morning gap up' takes us past it) but it's been quite a move - albeit until the past 2 days, most of it overnight.  I keep harping on these "V" shaped bounces solely because historically they just did not happen very often, and now they seem to happen EVERY rally.  Hence all of us with a stock market history pre 2009 are constantly saying "it can't happen again", and it does.  Knowing how pervasive they have become, you can imagine how antsy money managers must be once you see these rallies move past what would be considered a normal oversold bounce.  Another new paradigm market dilemma...

We have also made quick work of the % of stocks over their 50 day moving average.  One thing you notice is things can stay overbought (80-90% of stocks over their 50 day MAs) for months on end, but the oversold readings usually resolve themselves quickly!

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