Thursday, February 3, 2011

Ford (F) Fills its Gap

I mentioned post earnings drop that Ford (F) had a high probability of filling a gap in the chart from early November, in the low to mid $15s - hence could be shorted.

Technically, the chart of the stock now looks a mess, after a high volume red candle Friday.  There is an obvious gap in the low to mid $15s to fill from early November 2010, it would seem extremely likely this gets filled.  If one believes this the name is a short on any cursory bounces until/if/when that gap is filled, at which time the long side looks more interesting

This has now happened, and if one had no position (from the long side) it would be an attractive place to start building a position - perhaps 15-25% of a longer term stake.  If the stock rebounds from here, and the market eternally goes up, at least there is some skin in the game - and you can always add as the stock exhibits more strength.  If the market actually can experience a correction, there might be a chance to buy nearer or at the 200 day moving average in the lower $14s, which I'd consider a major gift.

For shorter term 'flipping' purposes, if the Ford bounces straight from here I'd expect the stock to have some trouble once it gets back to the mid to upper $16s.  A move over the 50 day moving average would be what one would seek for a longer term advance.  I would not expect that in a normal market, as the stock has taken a lot of technical damage the past week.

No position


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