Thursday, February 3, 2011

Both Transports and Emerging Markets are Diverging - Cause for Worry?

Lost in the "ever upward" rally have been many emerging markets (I used a general market instrument below, but markets like India are already down 10% year to date), and lately transports.  Hence we have an interesting divergence as the general indexes go one way but markets that supposedly are the global hot spots show relative weakness, along with transports which of course ship into those markets... and domestically.  Both indexes below not only are not joining the broader indexes in making new highs but have fallen to a key longer term support level, the 50 day moving average.

To be ignored (as every other warning shot the past 5 months has been?), or canary in the coal mine?  In a normal market I'd say they are to be paid attention to - but no other traditional warning signal the past few months has mattered, so we'll know better in 4-8 weeks if these signals matter in The Bernank market. 

No positions

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