Wednesday, February 2, 2011

ADP Employment 187,000 vs Expectation of 145,000

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This month's ADP Employment report came in at 187K vs expectation of 145K.  Last month's off the charts 297K was revised down by 50K to 247K - which shows we place far too much emphasis on figures than can be adjusted +/- 20% in 30 days.

The variance between ADP and the monthly government data has been significant the past few months for whatever reason, so not sure if we can read a thing into the figure.

As for this Friday's payroll number I was being facetious this weekend when I said if the number is below expectation they will blame it on the snow.  Indeed, a certain analyst ... we'll call him JoeV.... already is saying the survey week came during snowstorms so it could disappoint.  By that measure, based on what I see outside today, we can ignore next month's employment data as well because apparently no one hires when its snowy anymore.  Expectation for Friday is 140,000.

Either way we need 125-150K a month just to keep up with the increase in adult population growth, and we should have had months of 250-300K+ a few quarters ago.  Housing and employment continue to be the 2 stubborn issues in the economy.  The main mystery to me is where our working age population has disappeared to as workforce participation is well over 2% the long term average, meaning roughly 3M Americans have somehow fallen off the radar.

Full ADP report here.

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