Monday, January 3, 2011

[Video] CNBC - Goldman Sach's Jan Hatzius Gets Very Bullish on 'Stock Market Economy', Still Some Struggles in Real Economy - Changes Mind on Future QE Prospects

The one economist all of Wall Street (and I am sure many in the Federal Reserve) listens to, has changed his tune quite substantially the past 3-4 months.  Goldman's Jan Hatzius had a quite dour outlook just this past October  [Oct 6, 2010: Goldman Sachs - 2 Scenarios for U.S. Economy in Next 6-9 Months (a) Bad or (b) Very Bad] but 2 months later as the massive "don't call it yet another stimulus" plan looked headed for approval turned quite bullish [Dec 2, 2010: Goldman's Jan Hatzius Turns Quite Bullish]  Indeed the surprise of the payroll tax holiday and some of the other goodies stuffed into the Bush tax cut extensions led him to believe that GDP will be pumped up by an additional 0.5 to 1.0% in 2011

Interesting to note that the man who was saying the Fed would need to eventually do $2 TRILLION of additional Quantitative Easing (again not that many months ago) now has changed his tune on that end as well.  He believes the current $600B is more than likely all there will be.  That said, he does not see the ultra easy Federal Reserve moving to any form of tightening in 2011... or 2012.  This is quite remarkable as it will mean never before seen levels of liquidity for HALF a decade.  We saw the misallocations 1% rates for about 2 years (2003-2004) eventually created ... but as Chuck Prince says - dance until the music stops!  A year ago ago at this time, all the talk was when the Fed would tighten (many thought by mid to late year 2010).... now we are talking 2013.  The massive steroids to the economy continue....

With all that said, it will continue to not feel like any sort of recovery for large swathes of the populace... but for the "Stock Market Economy" Mr. Hatzius is waving the green flag.  Below we have a video with some of his thoughts courtesy of CNBC

8 minute video - email readers will need to come to site to view

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