Wednesday, January 5, 2011

ADP December Payrolls Up a Whopping 297,000

Two back to back off the wall figures in ADP.  Usually the government's monthly report comes in about 70-80K higher than ADP but November's 92K in the ADP report was strangely much higher than the government report 2 days later, which came in below 40K. This time we have an off the charts figure of just under 300,000 in ADP.   Obviously we have a lot of seasonal hiring in December but one would think this is adjusted away somehow.  Almost all gains were in the service providing sector: +270K which would make sense in terms of a big jump in seasonal retail.  whatever the case the expectation for Friday's reports should go up but right now the relatiinship between ADP and government data seems more out of sync than normal.  January should likewise be interesting as we see how many of these gains potentially fade away as some seasonal workers are let go.  I thought the numbers this Friday would be positive to make up for a very strange November report, but no one is looking for 300Kish.

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