Wednesday, November 24, 2010

[Videos] Davidowitz!

Agree or disagree with him, there is probably no more entertaining financial figure than retail analyst  (newly minted corporate restructuring professional?) Howard Davidowitz.  I have not seen him on Yahoo's Tech Ticker in a year (time flies) but as an early Thanksgiving present he appeared today.  Usually Tech Ticker does 3 segments so I hope there is a 3rd coming - here are the first two.

(I disagree there will be a 'dollar crisis' anytime soon - until world faith in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency is harpooned, we can continue to act like unruly toddlers at will)

Holiday Retail Forecast: Cloudy With a Good Chance of Sun

.... Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz and Associates is in agreement and is not expecting consumers to spend big this holiday season. “I expect a mixed holiday shopping season, nothing dynamic,” he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. “I think it will be a little better this year, maybe a percent better, maybe one and a half."

"Obama is Toast", Davidowitz Says: U.S. to Face Dollar Crisis by 2012

U.S. stocks are rallying today after Ireland announced a new $20 billion austerity package aimed at getting its debt crisis under control. The Irish government plans to cut spending and raise taxes over the next four years.

The move helps the country meet requirements for a EU/IMF rescue package, which Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen says will likely be around 85 billion euros.

Howard Davidowitz, a corporate restructuring professional, is encouraged by Ireland’s “positive action.” The key in any restructuring, he says, is to “make hard decisions,” which it looks like Ireland is prepared to do.

Unfortunately for Europe, the crisis doesn’t end with Ireland. Interest rates in Spain, Portugal and Greece (already the recipient of bailout) are rising. Davidowitz says the situation in Spain is increasingly troublesome thanks to a 20% unemployment rate and housing crash.

Don’t be surprised to see the “PIIGS” announce more austerity measures in the future.

The situation in Europe, and specifically Ireland, is very similar to what’s happened in the United States, Davidowitz notes. The only major difference is the U.S. can still borrow very cheaply. But, unlike Europe we’ve "done nothing! Nothing!" to get spending under control. He fears “the U.S. dollar is at risk” and could face a crisis “in the next two years,” if we don’t start our own austerity plan.

Step one, he says: End quantitative easing and allow the Bush-Era tax cuts to expire. "I don't think we should cut taxes for anybody," says Davidowitz, noting we could have paid for the $3.8 trillion deficit-cutting planthe President's commission is recommending by not passing the Bush tax cuts in the first place.


Some old clips - pure entertainment


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