Downgrade of 2010 GDP by 0.8%
Downgrade of 2011 GDP by 0.55%
Upgrade Unemployment (i.e. higher) in 2010 by 0.25%
Upgrade Unemployment in 2011 in 0.5%
Summary: after denying reality for as long as possible, we are beginning to face it.
That said, we are drinking Kool Aid in 2012 and 2013 as we model 4%+ GDP for 2 years straight. Especially considering that will be 5 years out from the 2007-2008 recession... just about time for a new cyclical downtrend in the economy. (gulp gulp)
As for monetary policy - we argued a lot. Some of our members thought QE2 would do something. Some members thought it would do nothing. In sum, we have no flipping idea but surely the market will look at us as omnipresent demigods as they always do - so to look like we are useful we will do something. Anything.
Best Of FMMF
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows