Friday, November 5, 2010

A Second Look at Oil this Week

Tuesday, I said to keep an eye on oil as black gold was in the $83s; I noted $85 (which would be a new recent high) and $87+ (taking out yearly highs) as key levels.   The former can be marked "mission accomplished" and now we are testing the latter.  Crude sits at mid $86s level.

With everything now a computerized trade, a new "breakout" to yearly highs should lead to a slew of algo buying with carbon based life forms chasing it soon thereafter.  As stated recently, oil is the last major commodity to not to break out (I am ignore natural gas which is in it's own personal hell) - so we need this one to blast off to ensure "the recovery is rooted".

  • "Oil prices are already back to the end-2007 levels but the oil fundamentals are nowhere near those of 2007," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland.
(apparently the Swiss have not been notified that nothing trades on fundamentals anymore, it's all about where our central banker wants to 'put prices' circa USSR 1976.

I've been doing my job as gas prices hit the low $3.00s locally, going to local stations and telling frustrated citizens that high gas is a "sign of recovery" and what our central command economy central banker says is good for us.  Indeed, he does not even see oil prices because it's not part of his inflation outlook (food also doesn't count).  I've tried to explain that if $3.10 gas is good for us, Ben believes $4.10 will be better.  Thus far, the folk I speak to just don't understand the central command logic.  They say things like "that's just stupid".... obviously none of these folks took Central Banker Logic classes in high school.  I've encouraged them to write a letter to Bernanke for clarification on how his 'good deeds' are helping them.  Instead, per emails on the internets I assume they will begin to blame the "big bad oil companies" ... somewhere Gentle Teflon Ben has to be laughing.

Anyhow, fingers crossed - crude $100+ is necessary to keep this recovery going.  $125 better... $150+ nirvana.


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