Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Holiday Trend Looks Intact

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I have never studied it but purely anecdotal during the past 15 years it seems the market almost always does well in the 2 days around Thanksgiving as institutions rest and retail dominates.  Indeed I just saw on realmoney that the nasdaq has been positive over the course of wed + fri 26 of the past 30 yrs which confirms what I 'felt'... NASDAQ being the home of stocks the retail crowd favors.  This is why I felt if the 50 day could not break yesterday we would have to wait until next week for any real test.  So far this appears to be the case.

As for the jobs number today it looks like a big improvement on the surface but again its a tricky one due to holidays.  Apparently if you back out seasonal adjustments claims rose 52K.  Indeed I expect positive trends in the monthly data a week from Friday for the November data and then a month from now in the December data as America's shopping culture hits high gear.  More important will be the data a few months from now when much of this seasonal hiring is reversed in our "just in time" employment culture.

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