In the closing minutes Friday I bought a modest 2.5%ish TNA (Triple long small cap) ETF position for nothing more than the Monday morning gap up, which has been a calling card for this market since March 2009. The "win rate" has to be in excess of 90%, and just from anecdotal experience I'd say 70%+ of the gains in this market since the low of 2009 have been on Mondays. The robotic "no thinking" trade worked again, so I am taking an equally modest gain off the table (2%ish)... this sort of trade is more for intellectual kicks than anything.
Interestingly, we gapped up to the 13 day moving average around 1204. This should not be that important of a level normally, but since it served for support for 2.5 months it might actually be resistance. We'll see.
Key levels I'm trading off
1225+ (new yearly highs)
1220 (the breakout level, previous highs in April 2010)
1204 (13 day moving average)
1194-1195 (20 day moving average)
1192 (200 week simple moving average)
All these levels create mini ranges for very nimble traders - i.e. one can buy over S&P 1204 (with stop loss below) aiming for a move to 1220. Or one could short sell below S&P 1204 (with stop loss above) aiming for a move to 1194-1195. Etc.
Aside from the day trader crowd, bears want to see this cursory bounce fail in the next few days, and then a retest of 1192-1194... and obviously a break below that level. Bulls want Friday to be a one day event, and a move to new yearly highs. The action between 1192 and 1225 means nothing to me from an intermediate term status, so those 30-35 points are just "chop" to me... a lot of mini resistance and support levels intertwine here, so we have to wait to see which way this thing breaks. For the love of QE2 I hope it's down ;) That said I can't remember any major selloff ever happening Thanksgiving week as the market goes into "stoopid" mode as the retail daytraders take over**, so unless something massive happens this week - I would not hold out much hope for bears next.
**Even during the huge disclocation of 2008, the market went into "joy joy" mode during the holiday period.
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