Monday, November 8, 2010

Bookkeeping: Restarting VMWare (VMW)

There are hundreds upon hundreds of stocks making new highs, as momo robots chase stocks ever higher in unending fashion.  It would be too easy to just buy a basket of those, come back in a week, take half off the table, and secure 20-25% gains across the board.  Anyone* can do that.

*(including small animals)

Indeed, the only challenge left in this market is to see if you can make gains in atypical ways.  Ways that do not include a dart board.  Hence, for mental stimulation only I restarted a position in VMWare (VMW).  Much like the financials which finally have begun to break out in the "everything must go up" market, the algo's are now chasing in the last remaining stocks which are not up 40-60% in 2.5 months.  Normally I'd write things such as "when even the stocks left behind rally this must mean we're getting late in the move" but I write stuff like that every week, only to be POMO'd and QE'd.  So I'll spare you.

Instead we now just ask the simple question, will I make 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% on this purchase in the next few weeks.  We shall see.

On the outlier event the market can pull back for more than 4 hours and in a sum greater than 1.5% I will stop out below today's lows of $78, which would coincide with a 2.5% loss.  But the probability of that has been calculated at a number far too low to publish.  I have started with a 2.3% stake - a move over $82 would most likely me adding more.

Long VMWare in fund; no personal position


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