Thursday, November 18, 2010

Bookkeeping: Restarted TNA Short

I am using the spike to mid 1190s to restart the TNA short I covered yesterday morning.  (In real world, I'd just use TZA but easier to represent long v short exposure doing it this way)  I am using a 2.7% allocation.

I don't expect the market to reverse down today, as the new nature of the market is almost to never reverse on strong mornings... so we might drift sideways in a modest range of 3-5 S&P points for 5 hours which is the more traditional course of action since early 2009.  There is a gap up to 1197 that still needs to be filled, so that should happen today.

If the market bursts through 1201-1203 or so, than I'll close this out for a loss and have to reconsider policy.  If a 2.5 month rally is consolidated by a 4-5 day 'correction', we are indeed in new times.  I do find it curious how the 200 week simple moving average is being run through both to the upside and downside the past few days as if it is not there.  That said, I want to focus on more of a short bias below 1192; otherwise not as much.

One other potential outcome if 1202+ is cleared is a retest of the 1225 level, forming either a double top, or a new breakout.  Honestly I don't really know what all the excitement today is about - did anyone not know GM was IPOing?  Did anyone not believe Ireland would get bailed out... and the can kicked down the road? (Portugal, you are on the clock)  We are bailout nation globe.  I guess China's inflation problem disappeared last night as well.  Oh humans.

Short TNA ETF in fund; no personal position


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